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Is OSB Signaling a Free Fall?

The lumber market tipped its hand. Did you notice? Mill and transportation lead times dropped ahead of price. With short lead times and record high prices, a dip in demand can trigger a free-fall. We recently published a blog on why prices can drop so fast, and you can read that here.

Lumber Price and Lead Time for Delivery
(Source: Yesler Product Management Analytics data on lumber purchases)

Is that what is happening now with OSB? Yesler data is indicating the potential for a similar free fall. While the demand to capacity dynamics of OSB are different than Lumber, lead times have been contracting. Will slowing seasonal demand trigger the free fall?

Converting lumber market data into action

We work with independent lumber yards to help them see these risks and opportunities in data so that unhelpful rhetoric in the market stays in its place - noise in the background. Yesler customers and their data are kept private, while giving them access to insights across a broader data set than just their own. Privacy means they don’t tip their hand to the market.

Discover how you can see risks and opportunities with Yesler. Whether you manage your business in Excel or a modern ERP, Yesler turns your data into purchase plans in context of broader data-driven market inputs. Then you decide how to take advantage of opportunities and mitigate risks.

The chart below is from Yesler LBM Product Management Analytics. Blue indicates inventory within target range, yellow indicates below. Lighter shades indicate material inbound.


In this example, the customer is preparing purchase orders for anticipated delivery in week 8/13. They are running lumber inventory levels at the lower guardrail based on their sales plan showing slowing seasonal demand and using broader market information on decreasing lead times and the potential for falling prices to manage risk of loss in an overheated OSB market. Because this data is dynamic and constantly updated in Yesler, the customer has POs ready to issue for any future week’s purchases on a moment’s notice if supplier lead times change.

Yesler Product Management Analytics is not an ERP or software that you download or deploy with IT resources. We built it as a web-based tool to help buyers and product managers to convert noisy data into actionable purchase plans. Yesler helps lumber yards control their supply chain to ensure consistent supply at the right price. It’s not a trading site that accentuates volatility, but a data-driven approach to reduce the impact of volatility at the lumber yard. Yesler uses data to track price and lead time across suppliers, anticipate buyer needs and recommend orders, keeping the buyer ahead of fluctuating markets. It enables analysis, discovery of availability, private communication and negotiation, and confirmation of orders between buyers and their suppliers in one platform. Reach us at hello@goyesler.com to learn more.

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