Thinking

Don’t Let Seasonally Adjusted Numbers Lead You Off the Cliff!

Analysts, investors and news outlets are enamored with seasonally adjusted housing starts (US Census Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate, SAAR). The number makes for a great sound bite each month as the US Census releases a new number by adjusting the monthly actuals by a seasonal factor to produce an annual figure. The use of SAAR …

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Will Lumber Prices Achieve a “New Normal?”

PART I WILL LUMBER PRICES ACHIEVE A “NEW NORMAL?” ‍ Record lumber prices have led some traders to suggest a “new normal” pricing floor exists in the lumber market. Their hypothesis is that a combination of producer leverage and discipline would permanently buoy prices above prior lows. That’s just not how lumber markets work. While there may …

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